Ben Funk Liongate

Whilst the jury is still out, changing weather patterns may be causing disruption to the food production process. Though sceptics abound, many researchersargue with expanding volume of evidence that the problem is already bad and set to get worse are set to get worse in the future.

Extreme weather events and changes in the frequency and severity of droughts and floods can cause widespread damage to crops and livestock, impacting the practices of farmers and Ranchers. Studies on the impact of climate change on long-term agricultural production have varying results, but work assuming a doubling of atmospheric CO2 result in a reduction in global cereal yields by as much as 34%.

Today's emerging countries are likely to be the biggest losers, says Ben Funk, due to the substantial share of agriculture in their gross domestic product, their location in the hotter, drier climates, and limited ability to adjust their farming practices and locations.2By 2050 it is estimated, as a result of the temperature change, that 200 million people may be permanently displaced climate migrants, a tenfold increase over the current documented total of refugee and internally displaced people.

Consequently, unmitigated climate change and environmental degradation may cause social instability, generate mass movements of human population, which will only further pressure on resources.

Ironically, according to the World Bank, Agriculture is also a major part of the climate problem. It currently generates 19-29% of total GHG emissions. Without action, that percentage could rise substantially as other sectors reduce their emissions.It is hard to estimate the impact of climate change, but the accompanying graph is just one of the projected possible scenarios.

Portrayed in the graph, large negative yield impacts are shown in red across much of the world.3 Climate change's negative impacts are already being felt in the form of reduced yields.

While there is significant variation across crops, regions and adaptation scenarios, the majority of models predict a yield reduction of more than 5% with around 10% of projections expecting yield losses of more than 25%.4

1. USDA, Agricultural Adaption to Climate Change. 2. USDA, Climate Change and Long Run Agricultural Production; 3. World Bank; 4. IPCC, 2014